Deadlock over Kyoto means Cancún talks have little to show after two weeks

The future of international climate diplomacy was put in jeopardy yesterday as the UN global warming conference at Cancún entered its final hours with no resolution to the divide between rich and poor countries. "We have very limited time to make a last push," warned Mexico's foreign minister, Patricia Espinosa. "No party can lose sight of what is at stake."

On what should have been the final hours of two weeks of negotiations, Connie Hedegaard, the EU's climate change commissioner, warned that the UN process was at risk of becoming a neverending set of meetings unless they reach a positive outcome at Cancún.

"Everyone must realise that if we don't get things done here in Cancún, it's very difficult to see how you go from A to B," she said. "If we leave Cancún without getting anything out of this, I think multilateralism has a problem."

After two weeks of talks, despite an all-night bargaining session, ministers had managed by mid-morning on the final day to agree on just one paragraph of text.

The widening dispute about the future of the Kyoto Protocol and the overall shape of the agreement being worked on in Cancún risked overwhelming progress made on such areas as preventing deforestation, protecting peat lands, and the green fund. The most positive comment the EU's Joke Schauvliege could muster for reporters was: "Everybody is still on speaking terms." The UK's energy and climate change minister, Chris Huhne, was more positive. "There's still all to play for. We're in a much better position at this stage than we were in Copenhagen. But there is nothing to stop one or more countries having a hissy fit and throwing their toys out of the pram."

And as the Guardian went to press last night there were signs that the negotiations were making some progress. A draft negotiating text on the extension of the Kyoto Protocol specifically included reference to a 25%-40% cut in emissions by 2020. "If this gets approved we are far further than we thought coming into Cancún," said Greenpeace climate policy director, Wendel Trio. "At the moment the level of ambition of pledges is 11-16%, so 25-40% would double this."

The dispute over Kyoto reaches the very structure of the negotiations: on Thursday, Russia joined Japan in its opposition to a second term of the Kyoto Protocol. Canada has also refused to renew its commitment to Kyoto.

The prospects grew even more gloomy when the US pulled back from an agreement on a green fund and said it needed progress on all issues in the talks.

The US has insisted on withholding support for agreements on issues of forest preservation and technology until its conditions are met on its core issue of verifying emissions reductions by emerging economies such as China. This has frustrated progress, turning Cancún into an all-or-nothing event. "It's the overall package," Hedegaard said. "It's the totality."

By midday, negotiators were reconciled to working through the night to Saturday to try to avoid a collapse over the future of Kyoto. There was a parallel effort in world capitals, with David Cameron phoning the Japanese prime minister, Naoto Kan, overnight. Negotiators and environmental groups said there were a number of creative options to try to get around the dispute over Kyoto.

The task had become even more difficult after Russia's climate change envoy, Alexander Berditsky, told the summit on Thursday that his country would not sign on to a second commitment.

Russia's announcement further cemented the divide between rich and poor countries over the future of the agreement following a statement from Japan at the start of the talks that it too would not sign an extension of Kyoto.

Japan reiterated its opposition on Thursday night, with its negotiator, Akira Yamada, saying a renewal of Kyoto was "not an appropriate way or an effective way or a fair way to tackle climate change".

Developing countries say Kyoto is essential as the only international agreement requiring industrialised countries to reduce their emissions. "A second commitment period is a must in the outcome," said Brazil's climate change negotiator, Luiz Figueiredo.

But some developing countries have also admitted they were open to a fudge – deferring the question of Kyoto's future to next year's climate summit in South Africa.

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